Northern Lights Forecast for Iceland
How to read the Icelandic Met Office aurora forecast: the cloud map, the 0 to 9 activity scale, what Kp means, and when to book a tour or go out on your own.
The Icelandic Met Office (vedur.is) publishes Iceland’s aurora forecast: a cloud-cover map of the country, green where it is cloudy and white where it is clear, and a forecast of auroral activity at midnight on a scale of 0 to 9. Read the clouds first. The Met Office notes that a low 2 can already be beautiful and a moderate 3 dazzling, while clouds often hide the aurora completely.
The calendar above is Northern Lights Bus’s tour with hot cocoa, from $85 a person (checked November 2026), whose guides choose the night’s direction by this forecast.
The two parts of the forecast
| Part | What it shows | How to use it |
|---|---|---|
| Cloud-cover map | Forecast cloud over Iceland; green is cloud, white is clear sky. A slider moves through the days and hours | Look for white near Reykjavik, or within a drive of it, in the dark hours |
| Activity box (upper right) | Auroral activity at midnight, 0 to 9, for the date chosen under the map | A 2 or 3 is worth going out for under a clear sky; higher values are rare |
| Sun and moon times | Sunset, darkness, sunrise and moonrise for the date | Valid for Reykjavik, not for every place on the map |
The Icelandic Met Office’s aurora page and its forecast instructions, read November 2026.
The Met Office’s own advice is that the aurora needs dark and partly clear skies. A high number under solid cloud shows you nothing; a modest number under a clear sky can be a good night.
What the 0 to 9 scale means
The Met Office states its activity forecast on the Kp index. The US Space Weather Prediction Center defines the K-index as a 0 to 9 measure of disturbance in the horizontal component of the Earth’s magnetic field, taken over three-hour intervals; Kp is the planetary average from 13 observatories, with 1 calm and 5 or more a geomagnetic storm. In Iceland you do not need a storm: the Met Office’s own examples of a beautiful night are a 2 and a 3. It also notes that the lowest numbers show up most of the time and the highest are very rare.
What the scale cannot give you is a probability for your night. Nobody publishes a reliable “chance of seeing the lights” for a given evening, and this site does not invent one. The Met Office explains that a major storm can be foreseen one to three days ahead from the solar wind, and that quite reliable forecasts are possible only about an hour ahead, once a satellite measures the particles on their way.
How the tours use it
The tours read the same map you can. The bus tour heads wherever meteorologists predict the best conditions that night and aims for areas with no artificial light; the stops change from day to day. Tours also run or cancel on the weather: David The Guide’s group tour decides by 17:00 each day. A tour that runs without lights is covered by its retry policy, a tour cancelled for weather by its refund terms (no lights on your tour).
Going out on your own
You can watch without a tour. Visit Iceland’s advice is to get away from city lights, check the cloud cover and the aurora forecast, and give yourself several nights. Visit Reykjavik names Grótta lighthouse, on the western tip of Seltjarnarnes and 4.7 km by road from City Hall, as a local favourite for the northern lights in winter. With a car you can go further: Thingvellir’s Hakið viewpoint is 47.6 km by road from City Hall.
Driving at night in winter is the hard part. The Icelandic Road and Coastal Administration says roads can close without warning in storms; it publishes closures and weather alerts at umferdin.is, runs a traffic service on 1777, and points travellers to Safetravel, the site of the search-and-rescue association. A tour hands that part, and the choice of direction, to a driver who does it every night.
Pick your night
From Reykjavik: Northern Lights Bus Tour with Hot Cocoa
The guides follow the night's forecast out of the city lights; one free retry if you see nothing.
Check dates →Northern Lights: 4x4 Tour with Treats, Hot Cocoa & Photos
A modified 4x4 minibus for darker countryside, photos of you, and free rebooking for two years.
See the 4x4 tour →Small-Group Premium Northern Lights Tour from Reykjavik
Northern Lights Bus by minibus; a refund if weather cancels every night of your stay.
See the minibus tour →Prices, ratings and review counts from the listings (GetYourGuide checked November 2026). Operators price by date and season, so treat the figures as the shape of the market, not a quote.
More Operators Out of Reykjavik
Northern Lights Tours with Open Dates
Aurora tours from Reykjavik with live availability. Times, retry terms and cancellation terms are on each listing.
Book the Night, Then Watch the Clouds
The bus tour goes where the forecast is clearest and gives one free retry if the sky stays empty.
Check dates